It's foolish to expect Matt Shaw to be good right away

We have a term for fans who pretend they can effectively evaluate and project their favorite teams' minor leaguers and that term is Prospect Perverts. But it's also morons. Those groups routinely overvalue their teams best minor leaguers.

It's a pointless exercise (hence the name of the newsletter) to look at an unproven baseball player and just expect him to be good when he reaches the big leagues. That's especially true when you have never actually seen the player play.

But I'm going to do it anyway.

The smart thing to do with the Cubs' expected handing of their third base job to 2023 first round draft pick Matt Shaw would be to be cautiously optimistic and take a wait and see attitude about whether or not this might actually work.

Screw that. I've already decided he's going to be good.

I'm hardly ever wrong. I "knew" Kris Bryant was going to be good and he was. I "knew" Kyle Schwarber was going to be good and he was. I "knew" Damon Berryhill was going to be a ten time All-Star catcher and he...was he? I forget. You know what? I'm sure he was. Probably. I'll look at up later.

I'm not just basing my confidence in how good Shaw will be on just how the Cubs will be screwed if he isn't. At least not completely. But yeah, they'll be really screwed if he stinks. Their current backup options at third are a 40 year old who can't bend at the waist, a failed Rays prospect who reminds people of a poor man's Emilio Bonifacio, a former NL stolen base champ whose most similar player through his current age is literally Bill Pecota and a gangly Rule V pick from the Tigers who can't keep his helmet on his head.

Good lord man, somebody give Mike Olt a call and see if he ever found any eye drops that work.

Shaw played shortstop at Maryland, that noted Big Ten baseball factory that has produced noted superstars like Eric Milton, Ron Swoboda and the real Moonlight Graham. Plus former Cubs stars Jose Cuas and Kevin Hart. Hart isn't the tiny comedian, he was a middling reliever who was traded to Pissburgh for John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny. Also in that trade was two-time All-Star Josh Harrison. Harrison made the 2014 team because Mike Matheny wanted a utility player, and the 2017 team because Joe Maddon had to get stuck with somebody on the Pirates.

Shaw was the 13th pick in the 2023 draft and if you think he's rocketed through the system, six of the 12 players drafted before him have already played in the big leagues. Some hump named Paul Skenes, plus Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Jacob Wilson, Rhett Lowder and Nolan Schanuel. So he's not on the fast track. But he's on the track.

He signed right away and tore up rookie ball and the Midwest League in 2023 and finished the season in double-A hitting .292 with three homers and four doubles in 15 games at Tennessee. (Did you know the Tennessee Smokies are now the Knoxville Smokies starting this year? You didn't. And you don't care? Well, you know it now anyway.)

Shaw started last year there and struggled out of the gate hitting just .237 in April and .228 in May. However his on base averages those two months were .387 and .336 so all was not lost. He then got hot and finished up hitting .279/.373/.468 with 14 homers. He then spent the season's final 35 games in Iowa where he hit .298/.395/.534 with seven homers. Before you get too excited, everybody hits at Iowa because AAA pitching blows, but even with that knowledge, those are pretty impressive stats for a 22 year old in the International League.

Much of my unfounded confidence in Matt is that a notoriously conservative ranker of prospects, Keith Law, loves him. Keith raved about Shaw before his draft, predicting that he would fall from where he should have been picked (fourth or fifth overall) because he didn't have the arm to play shortstop, but that it shouldn't matter because he could hit and play either second or third.

Then, when the Cubs drafted Shaw, Law reiterated that it was insane that Shaw would fall to 13, and touting him as a steal for the Cubs.

Law also was consistently puzzled by the Cubs pursuit of Alex Bregman this winter, considering at this stage in Bregman's career his numbers will be in decline (some of which might be mitigated by playing in Fenway, where you might remember the Cubs do not play their games) while he thinks Shaw can approximate what Bregman will likely do over the next couple of seasons.

Law remained high on Shaw even with his early struggles at Tennessee last year, and yesterday The Athletic published Law's ranking of 25 rookies most likely to have an impact in the 2025 season and Shaw ranked 15th. Not bad.

Just kidding.

He was first.

Here's part of what Law wrote:

As for Shaw's defense. He should be fine. His arm is probably average for third base, but that's the only concern as his quickness and range should be easily above average for the position. Consider what he needs to do to provide an upgrade over the guys the Cubs played there last year.

Christopher Morel was -14 outs above average, Nick Madrigal (who we were told over and over again was good there) was -4, and Isaac Paredes was the best of the bunch and even he was -1. Can Matt Shaw be better than 19 runs BELOW average?

Dare to dream.

The last time the Cubs handed the third base job on opening day to a player as young as Shaw will be was another 22 year old, Gary Scott, in 1991. Gary was, to put it analytically, very shitty.

Could we have seen it coming?